Excursus
[I am interrupting the posting of this paper to share an urgent article from today's Guardian by George Monbiot]
It's simple. If we can't change our
economic system, our number's up | George Monbiot | Comment is free | The
Guardian
Let
us imagine that in 3030BC the total possessions of the people of Egypt filled
one cubic metre. Let us propose that these possessions grew by 4.5% a year. How
big would that stash have been by the Battle of Actium in 30BC? This is the
calculation performed by the
investment banker Jeremy Grantham.
Go
on, take a guess. Ten times the size of the pyramids? All the sand in the
Sahara? The Atlantic ocean? The volume of the planet? A little more? It's 2.5 billion
billion solar systems. It does not take you long, pondering this
outcome, to reach the paradoxical position that salvation lies in collapse.
To
succeed is to destroy ourselves. To fail is to destroy ourselves. That is the
bind we have created. Ignore if you must climate change, biodiversity collapse,
the depletion of water, soil, minerals, oil; even if all these issues
miraculously vanished, the mathematics of compound growth make continuity
impossible.
Economic
growth is an artefact of the use of fossil fuels. Before large amounts of coal
were extracted, every upswing in industrial production would be met with a
downswing in agricultural production, as the charcoal or horse power required
by industry reduced the land available for growing food. Every prior industrial
revolution collapsed, as growth could not be sustained. But coal broke this
cycle and enabled – for a few hundred years – the phenomenon we now call
sustained growth.
It
was neither capitalism nor communism that made possible the progress and
pathologies (total war, the unprecedented concentration of global wealth,
planetary destruction) of the modern age. It was coal, followed by oil and gas.
The meta-trend, the mother narrative, is carbon-fuelled expansion. Our
ideologies are mere subplots. Now, with the accessible reserves exhausted, we
must ransack the hidden corners of the planet to sustain our impossible
proposition.
On
Friday, a few days after scientists announced that the collapse of
the west Antarctic ice sheet is now inevitable, the Ecuadorean
government decided to allow oil
drilling in the heart of the Yasuni national park. It had made an
offer to other governments: if they gave it half the value of the oil in that
part of the park, it would leave the stuff in the ground. You could see this as
either blackmail or fair trade. Ecuador is poor, its oil deposits are rich.
Why, the government argued, should it leave them untouched without compensation
when everyone else is drilling down to the inner circle of hell? It asked for
$3.6bn and received $13m. The result is that Petroamazonas, a
company with a colourful record of destruction and spills, will now
enter one of the most biodiverse places on the planet, in which a hectare of
rainforest is said to contain more species than exist in
the entire continent of North America.
The UK oil firm Soco is now hoping to
penetrate Africa's oldest
national park, Virunga, in the Democratic Republic of Congo; one of
the last strongholds of the mountain gorilla and the okapi, of chimpanzees and
forest elephants. In Britain, where a possible 4.4 billion barrels
of shale oil has just been identified in the south-east, the
government fantasises about turning the leafy suburbs into a new Niger delta.
To this end it's changing the
trespass laws to enable drilling without consent and offering lavish
bribes to local people. These new reserves solve nothing. They do
not end our hunger for resources; they exacerbate it.
The trajectory of compound growth shows
that the scouring of the planet has only just begun. As the volume of the
global economy expands, everywhere that contains something concentrated,
unusual, precious, will be sought out and exploited, its resources extracted
and dispersed, the world's diverse and differentiated marvels reduced to the
same grey stubble.
Some people try to solve the impossible
equation with the myth of dematerialisation: the claim that as processes become
more efficient and gadgets are miniaturised, we use, in aggregate, fewer
materials. There is no sign that this is happening. Iron ore
production has risen 180% in 10 years. The trade body Forest
Industries tells us that "global paper consumption is at a
record high level and it will continue to grow". If, in the digital age,
we won't reduce even our consumption of paper, what hope is there for other
commodities?
Look at the lives of the super-rich,
who set the pace for global consumption. Are their yachts getting smaller?
Their houses? Their artworks? Their purchase of rare woods, rare fish, rare
stone? Those with the means buy ever bigger houses to store the growing stash
of stuff they will not live long enough to use. By unremarked accretions, ever
more of the surface of the planet is used to extract, manufacture and store
things we don't need. Perhaps it's unsurprising that fantasies about colonising
space – which tell us we can export our problems instead of solving them – have resurfaced.
As the philosopher Michael Rowan points
out, the inevitabilities of compound growth mean that if last year'sthe
predicted global growth rate for 2014 (3.1%) is sustained, even if we
miraculously reduced the consumption of raw materials by 90%, we delay the
inevitable by just 75 years.
Efficiency solves nothing while growth continues.
The inescapable failure of a society
built upon growth and its destruction of the Earth's living systems are the
overwhelming facts of our existence. As a result, they are mentioned almost
nowhere. They are the 21st century's great taboo, the subjects guaranteed to
alienate your friends and neighbours. We live as if trapped inside a Sunday
supplement: obsessed with fame, fashion and the three dreary staples of
middle-class conversation: recipes, renovations and resorts. Anything but the
topic that demands our attention.
Statements of the bleeding obvious, the
outcomes of basic arithmetic, are treated as exotic and unpardonable
distractions, while the impossible proposition by which we live is regarded as
so sane and normal and unremarkable that it isn't worthy of mention. That's how
you measure the depth of this problem: by our inability even to discuss it.
Twitter: @georgemonbiot.
A fully referenced version of this article can be found at Monbiot.com